On 13 August Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s annualised revenue had cleared $40 billion, roughly double where it stood at the end of 2025. That is a ferocious rate of growth for a company that only put ChatGPT in front of the public in November 2022. The natural next step for a business minting money at that pace would be a blockbuster stock market debut while the crowd is still cheering.
OpenAI appears to be doing the reverse. Reporting from The New York Times says the company is leaning towards pushing its initial public offering back from a hoped-for autumn 2026 listing to sometime in 2027. Chief executive Sam Altman reportedly wants a $1 trillion valuation before he rings the bell, and he would rather wait for that number than accept a smaller one now.
The bonfire behind the growth
The reason to hesitate is written in the cost column, and it is enormous. Documents verified by the Financial Times put OpenAI’s total 2025 spending at about $34 billion, including roughly $19.2 billion on research and development, $7.5 billion on the cost of actually running the models, and $17.2 billion in various fees paid to Microsoft. The company reported a $38.5 billion net loss for 2025, though about $30 billion of that was a one-off accounting item with no cash attached, leaving an operating loss near $8 billion.
2026 looks hungrier still. The Information reported OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in cash in the first quarter alone, more than half its $5.7 billion of revenue for the period. In court testimony, president Greg Brockman put the year’s compute bill at around $50 billion, which works out at more than $130 million a day. Revenue is soaring, and the losses are soaring faster.
The maths of a trillion
At a $1 trillion valuation OpenAI would trade on roughly 25 times sales. Microsoft sits near 12 times, Google closer to 6. Anthropic carries a similar multiple to OpenAI at about 20 times, but with one crucial difference: Anthropic expects to turn an operating profit in the second quarter of 2026, while OpenAI’s operating loss ran to 122% of revenue in the first. The same rich multiple, with a very different risk sitting on the other side of it.
Timing is the other headache. Anthropic could list as early as this autumn, and whoever goes first sets the opening price tag for the whole AI sector. Anthropic is reportedly expanding a revolving credit line towards $10 billion to shore up its liquidity ahead of a possible float. If OpenAI wants a fatter multiple than its rival, it will need results that plainly outrun Anthropic’s, a tall order while cash leaves the building at $130 million a day.
Why the rest of us should care
These two listings will do more than mint a few billionaires. They will hand public markets the first honest price on the AI boom, the moment when quarterly filings replace press releases and everyone can finally see the losses in daylight. The cautionary tale is fresh. SpaceX shares popped to $225 in their first week as a public company, then drifted back below the issue price as retail enthusiasm faded. A trillion-dollar sticker is easy to write down and hard to defend.
For what it is worth, none of this is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and private-company figures are always squishier than audited ones. (Not investment advice.)
Did you know: OpenAI began life in 2015 as a non-profit with a pledged $1 billion in funding, a structure it has spent the years since gradually unwinding to raise the far larger sums its compute habit now demands.
Sources
- TradingKey: OpenAI revenue tops $40 billion, IPO window
- Crypto Briefing: OpenAI and a potential $1 trillion valuation
- TradingKey: Anthropic expands credit line ahead of IPO
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